How Do I Win Big In Gambling
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*How Do I Win Big In Gambling Slot Machines
*How Do I Win Big In Football Betting
Gambling Tipping - Find out all about tipping in casinos. Learn what’s expected in various countries when you win big and want to thank the dealer. Well, what it means in a nutshell is that in order to win big from small stakes, you will need to amass a great number of odds. To do this, you should always look to select those games or events. The Best Slots Strategy (And Tips) to Win Big - says: December 4, 2019 at 6:00 am like in a casino that will offer free play, these free spins are designed to get you to play and bet more. Steve and Matt Bourie, from the American Casino Guide, discuss how to be a guaranteed winner in a casino - even if you know nothing! They explain one easy me. In short, the best ways to win Blackjack at casinos are: Stick to the basic guide, relentlessly. You can win with just using the basics, and you won’t lose more than it hurts. Search “blackjack.More Articles
Do you like to gamble? If so, then you should know that the taxman beats the odds every time you do. The Internal Revenue Service and many states consider any money you win in the casino as taxable income. This applies to all types of casual gambling – from roulette and poker tournaments to slots, bingo and even fantasy football. In some cases, the casino will withhold a percentage of your winnings for taxes before it pays you at the rate of 24 percent.Casino Winnings Are Not Tax-Free
Casino winnings count as gambling income and gambling income is always taxed at the federal level. That includes cash from slot machines, poker tournaments, baccarat, roulette, keno, bingo, raffles, lotteries and horse racing. If you win a non-cash prize like a car or a vacation, you pay taxes on the fair market value of the item you win.
By law, you must report all your winnings on your federal income tax return – and all means all. Whether you win five bucks on the slots or five million on the poker tables, you are technically required to report it. Job income plus gambling income plus other income equals the total income on your tax return. Subtract the deductions, and you’ll pay taxes on the resulting figure at your standard income tax rate.How Much You Win Matters
While you’re required to report every last dollar of winnings, the casino will only get involved when your winnings hit certain thresholds for income reporting:
*$5,000 (reduced by the wager or buy-in) from a poker tournament, sweepstakes, jai alai, lotteries and wagering pools.
*$1,500 (reduced by the wager) in keno winnings.
*$1,200 (not reduced by the wager) from slot machines or bingo
*$600 (reduced by the wager at the casino’s discretion) for all other types of winnings but only if the payout is at least 300 times your wager.
Win at or above these amounts, and the casino will send you IRS Form W2-G to report the full amount won and the amount of tax withholding if any. You will need this form to prepare your tax return.
Understand that you must report all gambling winnings to the IRS, not just those listed above. It just means that you don’t have to fill out Form W2-G for other winnings. Income from table games, such as craps, roulette, blackjack and baccarat, do not require a WG-2, for example, regardless of the amount won. It’s not clear why the IRS has differentiated it this way, but those are the rules. However, you still have to report the income from these games.What is the Federal Gambling Tax Rate?
Standard federal tax withholding applies to winnings of $5,000 or more from:
*Wagering pools (this does not include poker tournaments).
*Lotteries.
*Sweepstakes.
*Other gambling transactions where the winnings are at least 300 times the amount wagered.
If you win above the threshold from these types of games, the casino automatically withholds 24 percent of your winnings for the IRS before it pays you. If you cannot provide a Social Security number, the casino will make a ’backup withholding.’ A backup withholding is also applied at the rate of 24 percent, only now it includes all your gambling winnings from slot machines, keno, bingo, poker tournaments and more. This money gets passed directly to the IRS and credited against your final tax bill. Before December 31, 2017, the standard withholding rate was 25 percent and the backup rate was 28 percent.
The $5,000 threshold applies to net winnings, meaning you deduct the amount of your wager or buy-in. For example, if you won $5,500 on the poker tables but had to buy in to the game for $1,000, then you would not be subject to the minimum withholding threshold.
It’s important to understand that withholding is an entirely separate requirement from reporting the winning on Form WG-2. Just because your gambling winning is reported on Form WG-2 does not automatically require a withholding for federal income taxes.Can You Deduct Gambling Losses?
If you itemize your deductions on Schedule A, then you can also deduct gambling losses but only up to the amount of the winnings shown on your tax return. So, if you won $5,000 on the blackjack table, you could only deduct $5,000 worth of losing bets, not the $6,000 you actually lost on gambling wagers during the tax year. Casino boat north myrtle beach. And you cannot carry your losses from year to year.
The IRS recommends that you keep a gambling log or spreadsheet showing all your wins and losses. The log should contain the date of the gambling activity, type of activity, name and address of the casino, amount of winnings and losses, and the names of other people there with you as part of the wagering pool. Be sure to keep all tickets, receipts and statements if you’re going to claim gambling losses as the IRS may call for evidence in support of your claim.What About State Withholding Tax on Gambling Winnings?
There are good states for gamblers and bad states for gamblers. If you’re going to ’lose the shirt off your back,’ you might as well do it in a ’good’ gambling state like Nevada, which has no state tax on gambling winnings. The ’bad’ states tax your gambling winnings either as a flat percentage of the amount won or by ramping up the percentage owed depending on how much you won.
Each state has different rules. In Maryland, for example, you must report winnings between $500 and $5,000 within 60 days and pay state income taxes within that time frame; you report winnings under $500 on your annual state tax return and winnings over $5,000 are subject to withholding by the casino due to state taxes. Personal tax rates begin at 2 percent and increase to a maximum of 5.75 percent in 2018. In Iowa, there’s an automatic 5 percent withholding for state income tax purposes whenever federal taxes are withheld.
State taxes are due in the state you won the income and different rules may apply to players from out of state. The casino should be clued in on the state’s withholding laws. Speak to them if you’re not clear why the payout is less than you expect.How to Report Taxes on Casino Winnings
You should receive all of your W2-Gs by January 31 and you’ll need these forms to complete your federal and state tax returns. Boxes 1, 4 and 15 are the most important as these show your taxable gambling winnings, federal income taxes withheld and state income taxes withheld, respectively.
You must report the amount specified in Box 1, as well as other gambling income not reported on a W2-G, on the ’other income’ line of your IRS Form 1040. This form is being replaced with a simpler form for the 2019 tax season but the reporting requirement remains the same. If your winnings are subject to withholding, you should report the amount in the ’payment’ section of your return.
Different rules apply to professional gamblers who gamble full time to earn a livelihood. As a pro gambler, your winnings will be subject to self-employment tax after offsetting gambling losses and after other allowable expenses.Read More:on
Gambling is taking a risk of losing something of value on an unpredictable outcome. When you gamble at either an online or land based casino both you and the casino take a risk in losing something of value. The risk is greater for you because the casino only offers games that provide a statistical advantage to the casino. US Accepted Sites:
However, much statutory and some case law has been devoted to ensuring that casinos and players don’t cheat each other by subtly altering the conditions of gambling games without each other’s knowledge and permission. You can, though, change the terms of the game. The casino often provides a way for you to do this.
But should you take the offer?
There are two things you need to understand before you can start improving your chances of winning when you gamble. First, you can change the outcome of a gambling game. Second, you will almost always confuse yourself if you try to do the math. These two most common of gambling mistakes help the casinos earn tens of billions of dollars every year.How You Change the Outcome in a Gambling Game
Many casino gambling games allow and even encourage players to change the stakes, the odds, and even the percentage chances of winning. Here are a few examples of how you can change the outcome of a gambling game (almost always for the worst).
Say you are playing a slot machine game and you win a prize on a spin. A special “Gamble” button lights up. You are now prompted to play a secondary game, maybe betting on the outcome of a virtual coin toss, using the prize you just won as the stake in your new bet. This is an exciting feature. It also means you are risking the loss of what you just won on a game with a better “edge” for the casino.
Most slot games have a theoretical return to player above 75%. Games developed after 2010 usually have better than a 90% theoretical return. The RTP is an estimate of how much money would be retained by a hypothetical player who spun the reels continually for a period of several years. It’s not a realistic estimate of how much money you will win, lose, or hold on to. It’s a statistical measurement used to gauge how friendly the game is to the gambler.
In a coin toss the theoretical return to player is 50% or 1 in 2. So let’s assume you just gambled $5 on a spin in the basic slot game and that you won $10. You have doubled your money. Now the “Gamble” light activates and you are invited to take your $10 and bet it on the outcome of a coin toss. And suppose the “Gamble” feature allows you to wager on the outcome of two concurrent coin tosses. Now you have a choice: bet on 1 coin toss for a chance to double your $10 to $20 or bet on 2 concurrent coin tosses for a chance to quadruple your money.
Your chances of winning the double concurrent coin toss are 25% or 1 in 4.
You would have a better chance to keep your $10 prize and just spin again on the basic game. By taking the “Gamble” challenge you improve the casino’s chances of winning your next bet. It’s like paying $5 for a quarter of pie at one restaurant and then paying another $10 for an eighth of a pie at a different restaurant. Are you really getting a better piece of pie at the second restaurant?
In the game of blackjack if the dealer offers you insurance most experts tell you not to take it. Why? Because you are betting that you will lose your basic wager. The chances of being correct (that the dealer has a blackjack) on your insurance bet are worse than the chances that you can beat the dealer’s hand (your original wager).
The bottom line here is that casinos will sometimes offer you ways to change your stakes and your chances of winning to their own benefit. If you want to win at gambling, don’t take the deal behind door number 2. Stick to your original game and be consistent. Let someone else win the goat.How to Confuse Yourself at Any Gambling Game
There is a certain idea among gambling experts that comparing the “house edge” in various gambling games helps you to make informed choices. The edge is a theoretical return to the casino, the complementary percentage for the theoretical return to player. In other words, in every form of gambling, there is only a 100% allocation of money. Gambling does not generate new wealth; all gambling does is pool wealth between the bettors and redistribute that wealth between the bettors (and sometimes also a middle man).
In the 1-on-1 game of blackjack there are only 2 bettors in your game: you and the casino. The casino is willing to pay up to the full amount of your bet if you win. It’s an even money match up, and that is really what makes blackjack so profitable for a casino. They risk less per round than they do with, say, roulette or a slot game. But if you have been reading blackjack tutorials you should know by now that the house edge is lower in blackjack than in other games, and therefore you have the best chance of winning in blackjack.
In fact, the dealer has a better chance of coming out ahead because at a busy table the dealer is playing multiple hands at once by the most conservative of rules. In other words, the casino is taking less risk per round in blackjack than the players while at the same time multiplying its chances of winning.
Players make mistakes when playing blackjack. Blackjack dealers don’t have to make hard decisions. In fact, by always going last the dealer often doesn’t have to make any choices at all. The players make most of the decisions in blackjack. And yet blackjack remains profitable for the casinos. The casinos are profiting from player mistakes.
Players make several types of gambling mistakes. One of the most common mistakes is to confuse the probability of winning with the theoretical return to player. The probability of winning is limited to the next round of play. The theoretical return to player is an estimate of what all the players of a game will collectively receive over the life of a specific game (or an arbitrarily large number of rounds in the game).
The rule of thumb is that the more rounds played for a given game the more the actual results of that game will average out close to the theoretical return to player (or the house edge).
But what are the chances of your drawing a natural blackjack on the next deal? What are the chances that the dealer will not win against you on the next deal? These are probabilities that can be computed on the basis of how many cards are left in the shoe, less the cards that have already been played. Those probabilities change as more cards are played but they rarely if ever line up with the theoretical return to player.
The mistake players make is assuming that the house only has a 2.5% chance of winning the next round. The dealer’s chance of winning that next hand can be as high as 100% and as low as 0%. The house edge is always irrelevant with respect to any individual round played on any gambling game from keno to slots to blackjack to baccarat.
When you gamble, it’s nice to know how much money the house is expected to retain over the next 30 days but that won’t help you predict how much you win or lose in any of the next 10 rounds of play.
Expert gamblers like to calculate probabilities but probabilities do not predict the next round’s outcome. The roulette wheel always has a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of landing on any given number. The chance that the ball will land on number “7” 100 times in a row remains 1 in 37 or 1 in 38. That never changes (allowing for truly random spins, although the laws of physics mandate that the spins won’t be completely random).
On the other hand, what is the expected probability of a random spin of the roulette wheel producing “7” 100 times in a row? This is where you multiply your individual spin probability (1/3x) by itself the number of times in a row (100 in this case). The expected probability of the wheel hitting “7” 100 times in a row is 1.51296e-157 (a very, very small number). But that low probability has no bearing on the probability of the next spin.
This is the dichotomy of probability theory, where you are dealing with large sequences of independent events. The expected probability does not mean you cannot or will not see the unlikely outcome. In this hypothetical example, we are simply computing how many possible outcomes there are and assuming the chances of producing the same result 100 times in a row are equivalent to a certain percentage of those possible outcomes.
Unfortunately (even semi-) random events have a way of defying the probabilities. But if someone offers you 100-to-1 odds that a roulette wheel will land on “7” 100 times in a row, verify their ability to pay and take the wager. They lose as soon as a different result turns up before the 100TH spin.
The bottom line here is simple: don’t try to do the math like an expert. Random chance will always eventually prove the experts wrong.What You Must Do to Improve Your Chances of Winning
Here are a few basic rules for improving your chances of winning when you gamble.
*Stop second-guessing yourself.How Do I Win Big In Gambling Slot Machines
Every casino game offers you a fair chance of winning. The games, when played fairly and legally, pay prizes that correspond to the expected probabilities of given outcomes, although casinos will hold back a little bit extra in most games to ensure they make some money. Hence, in roulette, the most you can win is 36-to-1 instead of 37-to-1 or 38-to-1.
The odds are always stacked against you. But random chance favors the fool, as the old saying goes. You just cannot guarantee you are the fool upon whom random chance showers its favors.
* Take the least possible risk.
In a hypothetical game where you win 100 rounds out of 100 rounds, you will kick yourself if you only wager $5 on each round for the chance to win $5 instead of wagering $100 on each round for the chance to win $10,000 on each round.
In reality, positive thinking doesn’t work when you gamble. The more you assume you could win the more you are likely to lose when you do lose.
Risking less does mean you win less per round but that’s okay.
* Manage your money so that you play as many rounds as possible.
You are more likely to win back $100 in wagers if you divide them into twenty $5 wagers than if you divide them into five $20 wagers.
Instead of playing numbers games (which is second guessing yourself) or assuming you will win a certain number of times (which is taking more than the least possible risk) you should assume you are going to lose more rounds than you win. When you play slots or even a modest keno game (like a 5-pick) you can still come out ahead when you play more rounds with small wagers than fewer rounds with large wagers.
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*How Do I Win Big In Gambling Slot Machines
*How Do I Win Big In Football Betting
Gambling Tipping - Find out all about tipping in casinos. Learn what’s expected in various countries when you win big and want to thank the dealer. Well, what it means in a nutshell is that in order to win big from small stakes, you will need to amass a great number of odds. To do this, you should always look to select those games or events. The Best Slots Strategy (And Tips) to Win Big - says: December 4, 2019 at 6:00 am like in a casino that will offer free play, these free spins are designed to get you to play and bet more. Steve and Matt Bourie, from the American Casino Guide, discuss how to be a guaranteed winner in a casino - even if you know nothing! They explain one easy me. In short, the best ways to win Blackjack at casinos are: Stick to the basic guide, relentlessly. You can win with just using the basics, and you won’t lose more than it hurts. Search “blackjack.More Articles
Do you like to gamble? If so, then you should know that the taxman beats the odds every time you do. The Internal Revenue Service and many states consider any money you win in the casino as taxable income. This applies to all types of casual gambling – from roulette and poker tournaments to slots, bingo and even fantasy football. In some cases, the casino will withhold a percentage of your winnings for taxes before it pays you at the rate of 24 percent.Casino Winnings Are Not Tax-Free
Casino winnings count as gambling income and gambling income is always taxed at the federal level. That includes cash from slot machines, poker tournaments, baccarat, roulette, keno, bingo, raffles, lotteries and horse racing. If you win a non-cash prize like a car or a vacation, you pay taxes on the fair market value of the item you win.
By law, you must report all your winnings on your federal income tax return – and all means all. Whether you win five bucks on the slots or five million on the poker tables, you are technically required to report it. Job income plus gambling income plus other income equals the total income on your tax return. Subtract the deductions, and you’ll pay taxes on the resulting figure at your standard income tax rate.How Much You Win Matters
While you’re required to report every last dollar of winnings, the casino will only get involved when your winnings hit certain thresholds for income reporting:
*$5,000 (reduced by the wager or buy-in) from a poker tournament, sweepstakes, jai alai, lotteries and wagering pools.
*$1,500 (reduced by the wager) in keno winnings.
*$1,200 (not reduced by the wager) from slot machines or bingo
*$600 (reduced by the wager at the casino’s discretion) for all other types of winnings but only if the payout is at least 300 times your wager.
Win at or above these amounts, and the casino will send you IRS Form W2-G to report the full amount won and the amount of tax withholding if any. You will need this form to prepare your tax return.
Understand that you must report all gambling winnings to the IRS, not just those listed above. It just means that you don’t have to fill out Form W2-G for other winnings. Income from table games, such as craps, roulette, blackjack and baccarat, do not require a WG-2, for example, regardless of the amount won. It’s not clear why the IRS has differentiated it this way, but those are the rules. However, you still have to report the income from these games.What is the Federal Gambling Tax Rate?
Standard federal tax withholding applies to winnings of $5,000 or more from:
*Wagering pools (this does not include poker tournaments).
*Lotteries.
*Sweepstakes.
*Other gambling transactions where the winnings are at least 300 times the amount wagered.
If you win above the threshold from these types of games, the casino automatically withholds 24 percent of your winnings for the IRS before it pays you. If you cannot provide a Social Security number, the casino will make a ’backup withholding.’ A backup withholding is also applied at the rate of 24 percent, only now it includes all your gambling winnings from slot machines, keno, bingo, poker tournaments and more. This money gets passed directly to the IRS and credited against your final tax bill. Before December 31, 2017, the standard withholding rate was 25 percent and the backup rate was 28 percent.
The $5,000 threshold applies to net winnings, meaning you deduct the amount of your wager or buy-in. For example, if you won $5,500 on the poker tables but had to buy in to the game for $1,000, then you would not be subject to the minimum withholding threshold.
It’s important to understand that withholding is an entirely separate requirement from reporting the winning on Form WG-2. Just because your gambling winning is reported on Form WG-2 does not automatically require a withholding for federal income taxes.Can You Deduct Gambling Losses?
If you itemize your deductions on Schedule A, then you can also deduct gambling losses but only up to the amount of the winnings shown on your tax return. So, if you won $5,000 on the blackjack table, you could only deduct $5,000 worth of losing bets, not the $6,000 you actually lost on gambling wagers during the tax year. Casino boat north myrtle beach. And you cannot carry your losses from year to year.
The IRS recommends that you keep a gambling log or spreadsheet showing all your wins and losses. The log should contain the date of the gambling activity, type of activity, name and address of the casino, amount of winnings and losses, and the names of other people there with you as part of the wagering pool. Be sure to keep all tickets, receipts and statements if you’re going to claim gambling losses as the IRS may call for evidence in support of your claim.What About State Withholding Tax on Gambling Winnings?
There are good states for gamblers and bad states for gamblers. If you’re going to ’lose the shirt off your back,’ you might as well do it in a ’good’ gambling state like Nevada, which has no state tax on gambling winnings. The ’bad’ states tax your gambling winnings either as a flat percentage of the amount won or by ramping up the percentage owed depending on how much you won.
Each state has different rules. In Maryland, for example, you must report winnings between $500 and $5,000 within 60 days and pay state income taxes within that time frame; you report winnings under $500 on your annual state tax return and winnings over $5,000 are subject to withholding by the casino due to state taxes. Personal tax rates begin at 2 percent and increase to a maximum of 5.75 percent in 2018. In Iowa, there’s an automatic 5 percent withholding for state income tax purposes whenever federal taxes are withheld.
State taxes are due in the state you won the income and different rules may apply to players from out of state. The casino should be clued in on the state’s withholding laws. Speak to them if you’re not clear why the payout is less than you expect.How to Report Taxes on Casino Winnings
You should receive all of your W2-Gs by January 31 and you’ll need these forms to complete your federal and state tax returns. Boxes 1, 4 and 15 are the most important as these show your taxable gambling winnings, federal income taxes withheld and state income taxes withheld, respectively.
You must report the amount specified in Box 1, as well as other gambling income not reported on a W2-G, on the ’other income’ line of your IRS Form 1040. This form is being replaced with a simpler form for the 2019 tax season but the reporting requirement remains the same. If your winnings are subject to withholding, you should report the amount in the ’payment’ section of your return.
Different rules apply to professional gamblers who gamble full time to earn a livelihood. As a pro gambler, your winnings will be subject to self-employment tax after offsetting gambling losses and after other allowable expenses.Read More:on
Gambling is taking a risk of losing something of value on an unpredictable outcome. When you gamble at either an online or land based casino both you and the casino take a risk in losing something of value. The risk is greater for you because the casino only offers games that provide a statistical advantage to the casino. US Accepted Sites:
However, much statutory and some case law has been devoted to ensuring that casinos and players don’t cheat each other by subtly altering the conditions of gambling games without each other’s knowledge and permission. You can, though, change the terms of the game. The casino often provides a way for you to do this.
But should you take the offer?
There are two things you need to understand before you can start improving your chances of winning when you gamble. First, you can change the outcome of a gambling game. Second, you will almost always confuse yourself if you try to do the math. These two most common of gambling mistakes help the casinos earn tens of billions of dollars every year.How You Change the Outcome in a Gambling Game
Many casino gambling games allow and even encourage players to change the stakes, the odds, and even the percentage chances of winning. Here are a few examples of how you can change the outcome of a gambling game (almost always for the worst).
Say you are playing a slot machine game and you win a prize on a spin. A special “Gamble” button lights up. You are now prompted to play a secondary game, maybe betting on the outcome of a virtual coin toss, using the prize you just won as the stake in your new bet. This is an exciting feature. It also means you are risking the loss of what you just won on a game with a better “edge” for the casino.
Most slot games have a theoretical return to player above 75%. Games developed after 2010 usually have better than a 90% theoretical return. The RTP is an estimate of how much money would be retained by a hypothetical player who spun the reels continually for a period of several years. It’s not a realistic estimate of how much money you will win, lose, or hold on to. It’s a statistical measurement used to gauge how friendly the game is to the gambler.
In a coin toss the theoretical return to player is 50% or 1 in 2. So let’s assume you just gambled $5 on a spin in the basic slot game and that you won $10. You have doubled your money. Now the “Gamble” light activates and you are invited to take your $10 and bet it on the outcome of a coin toss. And suppose the “Gamble” feature allows you to wager on the outcome of two concurrent coin tosses. Now you have a choice: bet on 1 coin toss for a chance to double your $10 to $20 or bet on 2 concurrent coin tosses for a chance to quadruple your money.
Your chances of winning the double concurrent coin toss are 25% or 1 in 4.
You would have a better chance to keep your $10 prize and just spin again on the basic game. By taking the “Gamble” challenge you improve the casino’s chances of winning your next bet. It’s like paying $5 for a quarter of pie at one restaurant and then paying another $10 for an eighth of a pie at a different restaurant. Are you really getting a better piece of pie at the second restaurant?
In the game of blackjack if the dealer offers you insurance most experts tell you not to take it. Why? Because you are betting that you will lose your basic wager. The chances of being correct (that the dealer has a blackjack) on your insurance bet are worse than the chances that you can beat the dealer’s hand (your original wager).
The bottom line here is that casinos will sometimes offer you ways to change your stakes and your chances of winning to their own benefit. If you want to win at gambling, don’t take the deal behind door number 2. Stick to your original game and be consistent. Let someone else win the goat.How to Confuse Yourself at Any Gambling Game
There is a certain idea among gambling experts that comparing the “house edge” in various gambling games helps you to make informed choices. The edge is a theoretical return to the casino, the complementary percentage for the theoretical return to player. In other words, in every form of gambling, there is only a 100% allocation of money. Gambling does not generate new wealth; all gambling does is pool wealth between the bettors and redistribute that wealth between the bettors (and sometimes also a middle man).
In the 1-on-1 game of blackjack there are only 2 bettors in your game: you and the casino. The casino is willing to pay up to the full amount of your bet if you win. It’s an even money match up, and that is really what makes blackjack so profitable for a casino. They risk less per round than they do with, say, roulette or a slot game. But if you have been reading blackjack tutorials you should know by now that the house edge is lower in blackjack than in other games, and therefore you have the best chance of winning in blackjack.
In fact, the dealer has a better chance of coming out ahead because at a busy table the dealer is playing multiple hands at once by the most conservative of rules. In other words, the casino is taking less risk per round in blackjack than the players while at the same time multiplying its chances of winning.
Players make mistakes when playing blackjack. Blackjack dealers don’t have to make hard decisions. In fact, by always going last the dealer often doesn’t have to make any choices at all. The players make most of the decisions in blackjack. And yet blackjack remains profitable for the casinos. The casinos are profiting from player mistakes.
Players make several types of gambling mistakes. One of the most common mistakes is to confuse the probability of winning with the theoretical return to player. The probability of winning is limited to the next round of play. The theoretical return to player is an estimate of what all the players of a game will collectively receive over the life of a specific game (or an arbitrarily large number of rounds in the game).
The rule of thumb is that the more rounds played for a given game the more the actual results of that game will average out close to the theoretical return to player (or the house edge).
But what are the chances of your drawing a natural blackjack on the next deal? What are the chances that the dealer will not win against you on the next deal? These are probabilities that can be computed on the basis of how many cards are left in the shoe, less the cards that have already been played. Those probabilities change as more cards are played but they rarely if ever line up with the theoretical return to player.
The mistake players make is assuming that the house only has a 2.5% chance of winning the next round. The dealer’s chance of winning that next hand can be as high as 100% and as low as 0%. The house edge is always irrelevant with respect to any individual round played on any gambling game from keno to slots to blackjack to baccarat.
When you gamble, it’s nice to know how much money the house is expected to retain over the next 30 days but that won’t help you predict how much you win or lose in any of the next 10 rounds of play.
Expert gamblers like to calculate probabilities but probabilities do not predict the next round’s outcome. The roulette wheel always has a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of landing on any given number. The chance that the ball will land on number “7” 100 times in a row remains 1 in 37 or 1 in 38. That never changes (allowing for truly random spins, although the laws of physics mandate that the spins won’t be completely random).
On the other hand, what is the expected probability of a random spin of the roulette wheel producing “7” 100 times in a row? This is where you multiply your individual spin probability (1/3x) by itself the number of times in a row (100 in this case). The expected probability of the wheel hitting “7” 100 times in a row is 1.51296e-157 (a very, very small number). But that low probability has no bearing on the probability of the next spin.
This is the dichotomy of probability theory, where you are dealing with large sequences of independent events. The expected probability does not mean you cannot or will not see the unlikely outcome. In this hypothetical example, we are simply computing how many possible outcomes there are and assuming the chances of producing the same result 100 times in a row are equivalent to a certain percentage of those possible outcomes.
Unfortunately (even semi-) random events have a way of defying the probabilities. But if someone offers you 100-to-1 odds that a roulette wheel will land on “7” 100 times in a row, verify their ability to pay and take the wager. They lose as soon as a different result turns up before the 100TH spin.
The bottom line here is simple: don’t try to do the math like an expert. Random chance will always eventually prove the experts wrong.What You Must Do to Improve Your Chances of Winning
Here are a few basic rules for improving your chances of winning when you gamble.
*Stop second-guessing yourself.How Do I Win Big In Gambling Slot Machines
Every casino game offers you a fair chance of winning. The games, when played fairly and legally, pay prizes that correspond to the expected probabilities of given outcomes, although casinos will hold back a little bit extra in most games to ensure they make some money. Hence, in roulette, the most you can win is 36-to-1 instead of 37-to-1 or 38-to-1.
The odds are always stacked against you. But random chance favors the fool, as the old saying goes. You just cannot guarantee you are the fool upon whom random chance showers its favors.
* Take the least possible risk.
In a hypothetical game where you win 100 rounds out of 100 rounds, you will kick yourself if you only wager $5 on each round for the chance to win $5 instead of wagering $100 on each round for the chance to win $10,000 on each round.
In reality, positive thinking doesn’t work when you gamble. The more you assume you could win the more you are likely to lose when you do lose.
Risking less does mean you win less per round but that’s okay.
* Manage your money so that you play as many rounds as possible.
You are more likely to win back $100 in wagers if you divide them into twenty $5 wagers than if you divide them into five $20 wagers.
Instead of playing numbers games (which is second guessing yourself) or assuming you will win a certain number of times (which is taking more than the least possible risk) you should assume you are going to lose more rounds than you win. When you play slots or even a modest keno game (like a 5-pick) you can still come out ahead when you play more rounds with small wagers than fewer rounds with large wagers.
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